12% of adults in the United States are already taking Ozempic-type drugs. Six months in, their spending on fast food falls 8% and on savoury snacks 11%. Two thirds cut sugary soft drinks. 62% cut alcohol. Europe is 18 months behind, Spain two years. This is not a diet debate: it is a measured consumption reset that is already rewriting menus.
01 — The data
When a drug shows up in a listed chain’s results
12% of American adults are already on GLP-1 drugs — the Ozempic family, prescribed for diabetes and obesity. This is not a niche. It is an entire market changing its relationship with eating out.
A Cornell study measured, six months after starting treatment, 8% less spending on fast food and 11% less on savoury snacks. More than half of users eat out «significantly less» or «less». Two thirds cut sugary soft drinks. 62% cut alcohol.
Europe is 18 months behind. Spain, two years. What you read today in English-language headlines you may well be seeing in your own sales mix by 2028 — though with Spain you never know, we have personality to spare.
02 — Who loses
Five categories already in the red zone
When the customer reduces portion size and lowers the sweetness they tolerate, some menu categories contract first. These are the ones the specialist press and the trend analyses already have marked:
- Quick service chains. The 8% measured by Cornell is direct. If your model is high rotation, low ticket and a big plate, every Ozempic customer is one customer less at the table.
- All-you-can-eat buffets. Double risk: less quantity per customer and general fatigue with the format. The «all you can eat» promise no longer fits someone who eats half and still leaves full.
- Sugary soft drinks. Two in three users cut them. If your liquid margin leans on this, that is the first hole you will notice.
- Sweet cocktails. Hit twice: by the reduction in alcohol and by the reduction in sugar.
- Traditional dessert. The last course is the first one to be dropped when the customer no longer has room.
If your menu leans on big portions, extreme sweetness or «all you can eat», the customer sitting at your table in 2028 does not eat like the one you have today. You have time to adapt. But not unlimited time.
03 — Who wins
The customer concentrates spending on fewer meals and wants them better
What follows is reasonable hypothesis, not closed statistics. But I think the market movements push in that direction.
What is already measured in the US: the Ozempic customer spends less on fast food and savoury snacks, two thirds cut sugary soft drinks, and 62% lower their alcohol. Within what they do keep on the table, there is less tolerance for extreme sweetness and excessive portions.
Three categories already stand out as winners of the Ozempic years, and they fit that logic exactly:
- Quality protein with a measured portion — not a mini portion, a considered and balanced one.
- A plant-forward menu — plant dishes as the lead, with recognisable ingredients — not ideological plant-based imitation that costs a lot and tastes of chewing gum.
- Alcohol-free drinks with technique — well built alcohol-free cocktails, alcohol-free wine with personality, zebra-striping in pairing menus. The liquid format needs innovating right now.
The customer on medication does not want to eat less. They want every euro they spend to count for more. If your restaurant gives them quantity without judgement, it is too much. If it gives them quality with a considered portion, it fits. That is the fight of the next three years.
04 — What I see when I audit
Three lines of the sales mix a restaurateur can start looking at tomorrow
- Drinks with sugar: soft drinks, smoothies on the menu, sweet cocktails.
- Large-portion main courses with no medium-portion alternative on the menu.
- Traditional dessert with no lighter or fresher alternative beside it.
If those three lines have been falling for two quarters and nobody on your team can explain why, do not look for the answer in marketing — which always takes the blame, poor things. Look at who you have stopped serving without noticing.
05 — For your restaurant
Four concrete levers, each with the metric that measures it
- Audit the mix of drinks with and without alcohol. Metric: percentage of alcohol-free glasses over the total. Spain is the market in the world with the largest base of alcohol-free beer consumed — one in every seven. If your list is not reflecting that base, you are behind your own customer.
- Build a portion ladder on the main course. Metric: percentage of sales in medium portion against large portion. If the option does not exist on the menu, you have a problem. Think about it.
- Review the dessert category. Metric: percentage of tickets that close with dessert. If it falls in the mid-to-high range two quarters running, it is not seasonality. It is the customer saying «I have no room left».
- Rewrite the drinks list with technique, not as an afterthought. Metric: average ticket of the alcohol-free options against the ones with alcohol. Goal: an alcohol-free cocktail should bill the same as one with. Put the work in.
The operator who understands by 2028 that the customer wants to eat less but better will come out of these years with a higher average ticket and a bigger margin than the one still offering «quantity for the price». Join in now. Or at least give it a thought.
Want to know what happens to your menu when this reset really lands? At Eating Stories we design menus and formats for the customer who is coming, not the one you have — looking at your current mix, the segments you are going to lose and the ones you can capture before anyone else.
